Lamin Dampha, Executive Director CepRass
The most prominent polling group in the Gambia, the Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (CepRass), has shared its predictions for the upcoming local government elections, projecting that the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) is likely to win Banjul, Kanifing Municipal Council (KMC), West Coast Region (WCR) and Lower River Region (LRR).
The CepRass team has carried out a series of surveys and interviews with voters across the country. Based on their results, they have made the following projections:
CepRass projects that the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) likely to win in the Upper River Region, Central River Region-North/South and the North Bank Region. The opposition United Democratic Party is poised to win in Banjul, Kanifing Municipal Council, West Coast Region, and Lower River Region.
In Kanifing, the intention to vote is led by UDP’s Bensouda at half of the respondents (50%), followed by NPP’s Bakary Badjie with a 28 percentage points between the two.
Only 27% of respondents in Kanifing are not decided or secretive with their decision, which is the lowest across all regions. Hence, our predictive outcome.
Leading the race in likely to win, the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Talib Ahmed Bensouda, holds a commanding 55% of the support.
But the race is not without uncertainties, as a considerable 24% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in support.
On the intention to vote in Brikama, nearly half (48%) of the respondents are either undecided or prefer to keep their intentions secret.
Of the remaining, NPP’s Seedy Ceesay leads the rest (21%) followed by UDP’s Yankuba Darboe (19%). The Independent candidates each do not pull more than 5%.
On the likely to win, 42% of respondents are unable to determine the likely winner but some candidates have emerged as strong contenders in the race.
The United Democratic Party (UDP)’s candidate, Yankuba Darboe, currently holds a considerable level of support at 23%. Challenging the UDP’s dominance is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate,
On intention to vote in Banjul, more than half of the respondents (52%) are either not decided or prefer to be secretive about their voting intentions.
Of the 48% that have decided or not are open about their decisions, majority (26%) intent to vote for UDP’s Roheyatou Lowe, followed by NPP’s Ebou Faye at 23%.
On likely to win, a significant 61% of the electorate falls under the “Can’t Tell” category, signaling a substantial level of uncertainty and indecision among the voters.
However, the UDP candidate, the incumbent Rohey Malick Lowe, holds a 26% vote share, making her the front-runner. The NPP candidate, Ebou Faye, is trailing behind with a 14% vote share.
Basse has the lowest proportion of undecided (and secret) voters, with NPP’s Muhamadou Ceesay leading the polls at 55%, followed by the incumbent Danso at a distanced 19% on intention to vote.
On likely to win, Mahammad Ceesay of the National People’s Party (NPP) has emerged as a strong contender, garnering a significant 63% of voter preference.
Approximately 19% of respondents remain undecided or unable to determine the likely winner, while the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Foday Danjo, commands a notable 16% of support, posing a formidable challenge to outright Mahammad Ceesay’s dominance in the polls.
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The dynamics in Janjanbureh mirrors Basse, with 41% intention to vote for NPP’s Sulayman Sawaneh, while UDP’s Malick Sowe follows at 19%. The total percentage of undecided and secret voters on intention to vote is 38%, which is significant.
On the likely to win the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Sulayman Sawaneh, who has emerged as the likely winner, commanding an impressive 62% of the projected support. However, the competition remains robust, with other candidates seeking to challenge the NPP’s dominance.
The United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate Malick Sowe follows at nearly half of Sawaneh’s (35%).
However, with less than 40% of undecided (or secret) voters on the
In Mansakonko, the UDP’s Landing Sanneh leads on intention to vote at 32%, followed by NPP’s Kebba Dem at 28%. However, two-thirds of the respondents (40%) in Mansakonko are either not decided or secretive about their intention to vote.
Taking center stage in the opinion polls race is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Landing B. Sanneh with 39% support.
However, the battle for Mansakonko Area Council is far from one-sided. The situation remains fluid, with a significant percentage of respondents, 35%, unable to determine the likely winner.
The NPP’s candidate follows Landing Sanneh close at 28%, however, the large undecided (secret) voters mean that we cannot predict the outcome of the election.
In Kerewan, NPP’s Papa Tunkara leads on intention to vote with 37% indicating their intention to vote, followed by UDP’s Malamin Bojang.
Cumulatively, around a third (35%) of the respondents are either not decided or keep their intention secret, while other candidates do not pull more than 4% each.
Leading the polls is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Papa Tunkara, propelling him to hold a notable lead with 37% of support on likely to win.
However, uncertainty still lingers, with 35% of respondents unable to determine the likely winner, and United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate , Malamin I. L. Bojang, with 22% of support.
Kuntaur is the Administrative Area on the north bank of the Central River Region (CRR) and Janjanbureh on the south bank of CRR. Like Janjanbureh, intention to vote in Kuntaur is led by NPP at 38%, followed by UDP’s Alhagie Sillah at 21%.
On likely to win in Kuntaur, Saihou Jawara, the candidate for the National People’s Party (NPP), gained significant attraction in the opinion polls with 35% of support. Close on Jawara’s heels is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Alhagie Sillah, who has garnered 22% of support.
It is important to remember that these are just projections, and the actual outcomes of the elections may differ. The CepRass team has a good reputation for reliability, but it is always possible that unforeseen events could happen that could influence the outcome of the elections.
“With high percentage of undecided or secret voters, we are only able to comfortably predict the outcomes of the elections in Basse (NPP), Kerewan (NPP), Janjangbureh (NPP) and Kanifing (UDP).
In the rest of the LGAs (yellow and red LGAs), we can’t predict the outcome because most of a significant ( at-least 40%) portion of undecided (or secret) voters.
The findings therefore show that the battle is not over in most areas (red and yellow) and will depend on who wins over the undecided ( and secret) voters.
Finally, more detailed analysis of the undecided voters can be conducted for interested parties and individuals.” CepRass reports concludes