The report, alongside predictions of the remaining regions, was read by Mustapha Jobarteh, Researcher at CepRass, on Saturday at NaNa Conference Hall in Bakau.
According to the survey, the candidate of the United Democratic Party (UDP), Talib Ahmed Bensouda, holds a commanding 55% of the support of respondents. It, however, notes that the race is not without uncertainties as a considerable 24% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in support.
Jobarteh stated: “In the intention to vote is also led by UDP’s Bensouda at half of the respondents (50%), followed by NPP’s Bakary Badjie with a 28 percentage points between the two. Only 27% of respondents in Kanifing are not decided or secretive with their decision, which is the lowest across all regions; hence, our predictive outcome.”
Continuing on the revelation, he highlighted that on intention to vote in Banjul, more than half of the respondents (52%) were either not decided or preferred to be secretive about their voting intentions.
“Of the 48% that have decided or are open about their decisions, majority (26%) intend to vote for UDP’s Roheyatou Lowe, followed by NPP’s Ebou Faye at 23%. On likely to win, a significant 61% of the electorate falls under the “Can’t Tell” category, signaling a substantial level of uncertainty and indecision among the voters.
“However, the UDP candidate, the incumbent Rohey Malick Lowe, holds a 26% vote share, making her the front-runner. The NPP candidate, Ebou Faye, is trailing behind with a 14% vote share.”
The report stated that on the intention to vote in Brikama, nearly half (48%) of the respondents were either undecided or preferred to keep their intentions secret. Of the remaining, NPP’s Seedy Ceesay did lead the rest (21%) followed by UDP’s Yankuba Darboe (19%). Each of the Independent candidates did not pull more than 5%.
Jobarteh added that on the likely to win question, 42% of respondents were unable to determine the likely winner but some candidates emerged as strong contenders in the race.
“The United Democratic Party (UDP)’s candidate, Yankuba Darboe, currently holds a considerable level of support at 23%. Challenging the UDP’s dominance is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate.”
Jobarteh noted that Basse had the lowest proportion of undecided (and secret) voters, with NPP’s Muhamadou Ceesay leading the poll at 55%, followed by the incumbent Danjo at a distanced 19% on the intention to vote question.
“On likely to win, Mahammad Ceesay of the National People’s Party (NPP) has emerged as a strong contender, garnering a significant 63% of voter preference. Approximately 19% of respondents remain undecided or unable to determine the likely winner, while the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Foday Danjo, commands a notable 16% of support, posing a formidable challenge to outright Mahammad Ceesay’s dominance in the polls.
“The dynamics in Janjanbureh mirrors Basse, with 41% intention to vote for NPP’s Sulayman Sawaneh, while UDP’s Malick Sowe follows at 19%. The total percentage of undecided and secret voters on intention to vote is 38%, which is significant.”
He stated: “On the likely to win, the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Sulayman Sawaneh, has emerged as the likely winner, commanding an impressive 62% of the projected support. However, the competition remains robust, with other candidates seeking to challenge the NPP’s dominance. The United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate Malick Sowe follows at nearly half of Sawaneh’s 35%.
“In Kerewan, NPP’s Papa Tunkara leads on intention to vote with 37% indicating their intention to vote, followed by UDP’s Malamin Bojang.
“Cumulatively, around a third (35%) of the respondents are either not decided or keep their intention secret, while other candidates do not pull more than 4% each.
“Leading the polls is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Papa Tunkara, propelling him to hold a notable lead with 37% of support on likely to win. However, uncertainty still lingers, with 35% of respondents unable to determine the likely winner, and United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate Malamin I. L. Bojang with 22% of support.”
Mr Jobarteh dilated that the intention to vote in Kuntaur is led by NPP at 38%, followed by UDP’s Alhagie Sillah at 21%.
“On likely to win in Kuntaur, Saihou Jawara, the candidate for the National People’s Party (NPP), gained significant attraction in the opinion polls with 35% of support. Close on Jawara’s heels is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Alhagie Sillah, who has garnered 22% of support,” the survey stated.
“In Mansakonko, the UDP’s Landing Sanneh leads on intention to vote at 32%, followed by NPP’s Kebba Dem at 28%. However, two-thirds of the respondents (40%) in Mansakonko are either not decided or secretive about their intention to vote. Taking center stage in the opinion polls race is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Landing B. Sanneh with 39% support.”